Munich = 02/Dec/2014: Global research firm Roland Berger expects that the autonomous (without driver\'s active role) cars will be reality by 2030 and will create an additional business of around $40 billion by then. According to a study by Roland Berger, autonomous car will propel sales of components like cameras, sensors and communication systems which will add some $30 to $40 billion dollars to the size of the global market. Further revenues worth 10 to 20 billion dollars could then be generated from the sale of advanced software and related services. \"Automatic (autonomous) driving will initially become established in a gradual process, but after 2030 it will bring a real revolution to the auto industry,\" explain Wolfgang Bernhart and Marc Winterhoff, Senior Partners at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. \"So OEMs and suppliers should already be thinking about the role they want to occupy in this market of the future, and design their business model around that.\" Distance sensors, parking assistance or cruise control systems are already taking much of the burden off drivers and are supplied as standard, at least in the premium segment. An unstoppable trend: the first highly automated vehicles are expected to be driving on the highway by 2020, in the city by 2025, and \"door to door\" without a driver by 2030.
Though many of the technical requirements have already been met, automakers still have certain barriers to overcome. Automated vehicles of course need the right sensors, cameras and radar systems. Such components are manufactured by large suppliers or the OEMs themselves. But it\'s a much more complex task to develop new software solutions for completely self-driving vehicles. These are algorithms, for example, that detect what other road users are doing. The car is therefore for example able to decide autonomously whether it should brake or accelerate. The functions of assistance systems are currently mostly separated, and highly automated vehicles have them combined in a central computer. But this new electronic architecture is displacing the volumes previously shipped by individual suppliers; so they need to determine as soon as possible the right business model for them in this market.
\"Another trend set to influence the automotive market strongly is the mobility on demand that will come with self-driving systems\", says Marc Winterhoff. It\'s conceivable, for example, that fully automated taxis rather than taxi drivers will be picking up passengers in the future; rental cars could drive to their customers direct and wouldn\'t need to be collected. This new type of mobility is going to radically change not only the functionality but also the design of the vehicles and the competitive situation among auto manufacturers and suppliers.